Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
