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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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